Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
67%33%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +34%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
MirageNinjas in Pyjamas ban
29%40%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +11%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 map
AncientHEROIC ban
50%43%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +7%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
29%50%
HEROIC · 3 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +21%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
60%67%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +7%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
HEROIC 40%Ninjas in Pyjamas 60%
The model gave 60% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
HEROIC 40%Ninjas in Pyjamas 60%
The model gave 60% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 58%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2