NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
67%67%
ASTRAL · 14 mapsnearly even +0%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Miragebrazylijski luz ban
54%33%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
42%60%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge brazylijski luz +18%brazylijski luz · 1 map
InfernoASTRAL ban
33%40%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Nukebrazylijski luz pick
50%60%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Anubisbrazylijski luz ban
71%50%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge brazylijski luz +7%brazylijski luz · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Nuke
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Mirage
6. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
ASTRAL 47%brazylijski luz 53%
The model gave 53% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
ASTRAL 35%brazylijski luz 65%
The model gave 65% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 68%
Series resultASTRAL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2