ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · win 2:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
40%61%
The KnockoutX · 1 mapedge The Huns +21%The Huns · 19 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
50%27%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The KnockoutX +23%The Huns · 18 maps
NukeThe KnockoutX ban
50%52%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsnearly even -2%The Huns · 17 maps
AncientThe KnockoutX pick
67%59%
The KnockoutX · 2 mapsedge The KnockoutX +8%The Huns · 13 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
50%38%
The KnockoutX · 2 mapsedge The KnockoutX +12%The Huns · 12 maps
CacheThe KnockoutX ban
50%56%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge The Huns +6%The Huns · 5 maps
DefaultThe Huns pick
40%50%
The KnockoutX · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe KnockoutX remove Cache
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickThe KnockoutX take Ancient
4. PickThe Huns take Default
5. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
6. BanThe KnockoutX remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (40% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
The KnockoutX 61%The Huns 39%
The model gave 61% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
The KnockoutX 28%The Huns 72%
The model gave 72% on The Huns — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 77%
Series resultThe KnockoutX 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2