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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
64%46%
Rare Atom · 21 mapedge Rare Atom +18%Just Swing · 9 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
53%38%
Rare Atom · 11 mapsedge Rare Atom +15%Just Swing · 9 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
75%67%
Rare Atom · 12 mapsedge Rare Atom +8%Just Swing · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%40%
Rare Atom · 11 mapsedge Rare Atom +20%Just Swing · 6 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
58%50%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsedge Rare Atom +8%Just Swing · 0 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
63%50%
Rare Atom · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Just Swing · 0 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%63%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +13%Just Swing · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickJust Swing take Cache
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Rare Atom 62%Just Swing 38%
The model gave 62% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Rare Atom 70%Just Swing 30%
The model gave 70% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Cacheprediction missed12:16
Rare Atom 60%Just Swing 40%
The model gave 60% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 72%
Series resultJust Swing 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3