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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2The Huns pick
60%57%
The Huns · 21 mapnearly even +3%Alter Ego · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%64%
The Huns · 16 mapsedge Alter Ego +9%Alter Ego · 7 maps
InfernoAlter Ego ban
26%57%
The Huns · 19 mapsedge Alter Ego +31%Alter Ego · 3 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
52%50%
The Huns · 17 mapsnearly even +2%Alter Ego · 2 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
38%50%
The Huns · 12 mapsedge Alter Ego +12%Alter Ego · 4 maps
CacheAlter Ego pick
56%71%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Alter Ego +15%Alter Ego · 3 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%50%
The Huns · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. PickThe Huns take Dust2
4. PickAlter Ego take Cache
5. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
6. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (55% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
The Huns 44%Alter Ego 56%
The model gave 56% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Cacheprediction missed16:12
The Huns 31%Alter Ego 69%
The model gave 69% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by The Huns.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
The Huns 53%Alter Ego 47%
The model gave 53% on The Huns — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 63%
Series resultAlter Ego 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3