ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nas#189 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nas pick
38%50%
THE UNIT · 4 mapsedge Nas +12%Nas · 10 maps
MirageTHE UNIT pick
45%50%
THE UNIT · 7 mapsedge Nas +5%Nas · 6 maps
AncientTHE UNIT ban
38%55%
THE UNIT · 4 mapsedge Nas +17%Nas · 7 maps
NukeTHE UNIT ban
50%50%
THE UNIT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nas · 8 maps
DefaultNas ban
60%60%
THE UNIT · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nas · 1 map
CacheNas ban
50%40%
THE UNIT · 0 mapsedge THE UNIT +10%Nas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHE UNIT remove Nuke
2. BanNas remove Cache
3. PickTHE UNIT take Mirage
4. PickNas take Dust2
5. BanNas remove Default
6. BanTHE UNIT remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
THE UNIT 48%Nas 52%
The model gave 52% on Nas — the map was taken by THE UNIT.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
THE UNIT 31%Nas 69%
The model gave 69% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
THE UNIT 38%Nas 62%
The model gave 63% on Nas — the map was taken by THE UNIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 56%
Series resultTHE UNIT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3