?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORING PLAYERS#336 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
40%57%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +17%Chinggis Warriors · 17 maps
Dust2BORING PLAYERS ban
50%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%60%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
AncientBORING PLAYERS pick
60%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 1 mapedge BORING PLAYERS +10%Chinggis Warriors · 10 maps
MirageBORING PLAYERS ban
50%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
50%50%
BORING PLAYERS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickBORING PLAYERS take Ancient
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
BORING PLAYERS 63%Chinggis Warriors 37%
The model gave 63% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
BORING PLAYERS 31%Chinggis Warriors 69%
The model gave 69% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 73%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2