Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sangal#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSangal pick
67%67%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 14 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
50%78%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Sangal +28%Sangal · 14 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
55%50%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +5%Sangal · 10 maps
AncientSangal ban
55%45%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Sangal · 7 maps
AnubisInner Circle ban
33%62%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Sangal +29%Sangal · 9 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
43%46%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Sangal · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
2. BanSangal remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle take Mirage
4. PickSangal take Cache
5. BanSangal remove Dust2
6. BanInner Circle remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Inner Circle 22%Sangal 78%
The model gave 78% on Sangal — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Inner Circle 50%Sangal 50%
The model gave 50% on Sangal — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 62%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2