Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBL#49 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
60%50%
Liquid · 11 mapsedge Liquid +10%BBL · 14 maps
CacheLiquid ban
62%33%
Liquid · 9 mapsedge Liquid +29%BBL · 8 maps
MirageBBL ban
70%46%
Liquid · 6 mapsedge Liquid +24%BBL · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
78%54%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge Liquid +24%BBL · 9 maps
AnubisLiquid pick
69%40%
Liquid · 12 mapsedge Liquid +29%BBL · 1 map
AncientLiquid ban
40%58%
Liquid · 1 mapedge BBL +18%BBL · 8 maps
Dust2BBL ban
45%50%
Liquid · 7 mapsedge BBL +5%BBL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. PickLiquid take Anubis
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Mirage
6. BanLiquid remove Cache
DeciderInferno (78% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Liquid 57%BBL 43%
The model gave 57% on Liquid — the map was taken by BBL.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Liquid 75%BBL 25%
The model gave 75% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
Liquid 76%BBL 24%
The model gave 76% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 68%
Series resultLiquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3