ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
81%36%
Galorys · 27 mapsedge Galorys +45%Grêmio · 7 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
55%47%
Galorys · 18 mapsedge Galorys +8%Grêmio · 11 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
42%53%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Grêmio +11%Grêmio · 13 maps
NukeGrêmio ban
62%36%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Galorys +26%Grêmio · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%36%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +14%Grêmio · 7 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
47%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Grêmio · 0 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%36%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Galorys +14%Grêmio · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickGrêmio take Inferno
5. BanGrêmio remove Nuke
6. BanGalorys remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Galorys 36%Grêmio 64%
The model gave 64% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Ancientprediction missed25:28
Galorys 89%Grêmio 11%
The model gave 89% on Galorys — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 80%
Series resultGrêmio 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2