ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA Academy#172 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
50%70%
BESTIA Academy · 8 mapsedge ALKA +20%ALKA · 26 maps
AncientBESTIA Academy ban
44%42%
BESTIA Academy · 5 mapsnearly even +2%ALKA · 22 maps
InfernoBESTIA Academy pick
64%53%
BESTIA Academy · 10 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +11%ALKA · 11 maps
MirageBESTIA Academy ban
45%57%
BESTIA Academy · 7 mapsedge ALKA +12%ALKA · 10 maps
NukeALKA ban
63%50%
BESTIA Academy · 4 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +13%ALKA · 10 maps
CacheALKA ban
60%45%
BESTIA Academy · 1 mapedge BESTIA Academy +15%ALKA · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%40%
BESTIA Academy · 4 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +23%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA Academy remove Mirage
2. BanALKA remove Nuke
3. PickBESTIA Academy take Inferno
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Cache
6. BanBESTIA Academy remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (63% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
BESTIA Academy 65%ALKA 35%
The model gave 65% on BESTIA Academy — the map was taken by ALKA.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
BESTIA Academy 47%ALKA 53%
The model gave 53% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 65%
Series resultALKA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2