ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
73%53%
Turma do Pagode · 22 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +20%BORRACHEIROS · 11 maps
Dust2BORRACHEIROS ban
43%50%
Turma do Pagode · 17 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +7%BORRACHEIROS · 8 maps
AnubisBORRACHEIROS pick
46%55%
Turma do Pagode · 9 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +9%BORRACHEIROS · 7 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
63%47%
Turma do Pagode · 4 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +16%BORRACHEIROS · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%36%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +20%BORRACHEIROS · 7 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
50%33%
Turma do Pagode · 4 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
DefaultTurma do Pagode ban
40%60%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +20%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Anubis
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Dust2
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Default
DeciderInferno (56% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Turma do Pagode 39%BORRACHEIROS 61%
The model gave 61% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Turma do Pagode 46%BORRACHEIROS 54%
The model gave 54% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Turma do Pagode 70%BORRACHEIROS 30%
The model gave 70% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 65%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3