ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
42%56%
Grêmio · 8 mapsedge Yawara +14%Yawara · 14 maps
Dust2Yawara pick
47%50%
Grêmio · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Yawara · 10 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
36%35%
Grêmio · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Yawara · 13 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
56%50%
Grêmio · 14 mapsedge Grêmio +6%Yawara · 2 maps
CacheYawara ban
36%18%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge Grêmio +18%Yawara · 7 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%50%
Grêmio · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 12 maps
NukeYawara ban
36%50%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge Yawara +14%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickYawara take Dust2
5. BanYawara remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (42% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:19
Grêmio 39%Yawara 61%
The model gave 61% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Grêmio 48%Yawara 52%
The model gave 52% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 65%
Series resultYawara 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2