ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
65%50%
Isurus · 13 mapsedge Isurus +15%ex-Keyd Stars · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
42%50%
Isurus · 15 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +8%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
AncientIsurus ban
31%57%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +26%ex-Keyd Stars · 3 maps
Cacheex-Keyd Stars ban
67%50%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +17%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Mirageex-Keyd Stars pick
56%67%
Isurus · 5 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +11%ex-Keyd Stars · 2 maps
NukeIsurus ban
36%50%
Isurus · 7 mapsedge ex-Keyd Stars +14%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Defaultex-Keyd Stars ban
67%50%
Isurus · 2 mapsedge Isurus +17%ex-Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. Pickex-Keyd Stars take Mirage
5. Banex-Keyd Stars remove Default
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Isurus 45%ex-Keyd Stars 55%
The model gave 55% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Isurus 23%ex-Keyd Stars 77%
The model gave 77% on ex-Keyd Stars — the map was taken by ex-Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Keyd Stars · 55%
Series resultex-Keyd Stars 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2