ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LCLow Cortisol BR#183 in the world · loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
78%50%
Galorys · 28 mapsedge Galorys +28%Low Cortisol BR · 2 maps
Dust2Low Cortisol BR pick
55%38%
Galorys · 18 mapsedge Galorys +17%Low Cortisol BR · 4 maps
AnubisLow Cortisol BR ban
47%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
NukeGalorys ban
62%40%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Galorys +22%Low Cortisol BR · 1 map
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +12%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
CacheLow Cortisol BR ban
50%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +20%Low Cortisol BR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Inferno
2. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickLow Cortisol BR take Dust2
5. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Galorys 69%Low Cortisol BR 31%
The model gave 69% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 79%
Series resultGalorys 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1