ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BESTIA Academy#172 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoProcyon pick
63%64%
Procyon · 15 mapsnearly even -1%BESTIA Academy · 10 maps
Dust2Procyon ban
35%50%
Procyon · 16 mapsedge BESTIA Academy +15%BESTIA Academy · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%44%
Procyon · 13 mapsedge Procyon +9%BESTIA Academy · 5 maps
MirageBESTIA Academy ban
67%45%
Procyon · 5 mapsedge Procyon +22%BESTIA Academy · 7 maps
NukeBESTIA Academy pick
55%56%
Procyon · 7 mapsnearly even -1%BESTIA Academy · 5 maps
AnubisBESTIA Academy ban
62%40%
Procyon · 9 mapsedge Procyon +22%BESTIA Academy · 1 map
DefaultProcyon ban
40%63%
Procyon · 1 mapedge BESTIA Academy +23%BESTIA Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanProcyon remove Dust2
2. BanBESTIA Academy remove Anubis
3. PickProcyon take Inferno
4. PickBESTIA Academy take Nuke
5. BanBESTIA Academy remove Mirage
6. BanProcyon remove Default
DeciderAncient (53% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Procyon 52%BESTIA Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Procyon 46%BESTIA Academy 54%
The model gave 54% on BESTIA Academy — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA Academy · 61%
Series resultProcyon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2