ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop ban
31%35%
Chicken Coop · 9 mapsnearly even -4%DETONATE · 13 maps
NukeChicken Coop pick
50%60%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 6 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
40%64%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge DETONATE +24%DETONATE · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%44%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge DETONATE +11%DETONATE · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
40%30%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +10%DETONATE · 6 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
50%30%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge DETONATE +6%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickChicken Coop take Nuke
4. PickDETONATE take Cache
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. BanChicken Coop remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (33% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
Chicken Coop 25%DETONATE 75%
The model gave 75% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Chicken Coop 48%DETONATE 52%
The model gave 52% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Chicken Coop 40%DETONATE 60%
The model gave 60% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 54%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3