ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Reign Above#324 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisVillainous pick
65%50%
Villainous · 13 mapsedge Villainous +15%Reign Above · 0 maps
InfernoReign Above pick
38%40%
Villainous · 12 mapsnearly even -2%Reign Above · 1 map
MirageReign Above ban
44%50%
Villainous · 12 mapsedge Reign Above +6%Reign Above · 0 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
44%40%
Villainous · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Reign Above · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
25%50%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Reign Above +25%Reign Above · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%50%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +7%Reign Above · 0 maps
CacheReign Above ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Reign Above · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanReign Above remove Cache
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickReign Above take Inferno
5. BanReign Above remove Mirage
6. BanVillainous remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Villainous 54%Reign Above 46%
The model gave 54% on Villainous — the map was taken by Reign Above.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Villainous 67%Reign Above 33%
The model gave 67% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Villainous 47%Reign Above 53%
The model gave 53% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 61%
Series resultVillainous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3