ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Club 333#229 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OverKnight#262 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Club 333 ban
33%40%
Club 333 · 5 mapsedge OverKnight +7%OverKnight · 1 map
MirageOverKnight pick
33%40%
Club 333 · 5 mapsedge OverKnight +7%OverKnight · 1 map
InfernoClub 333 pick
67%50%
Club 333 · 5 mapsedge Club 333 +17%OverKnight · 0 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
40%60%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge OverKnight +20%OverKnight · 1 map
CacheOverKnight ban
40%50%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge OverKnight +10%OverKnight · 0 maps
NukeOverKnight ban
40%50%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge OverKnight +10%OverKnight · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
2. BanOverKnight remove Cache
3. PickClub 333 take Inferno
4. PickOverKnight take Mirage
5. BanOverKnight remove Nuke
6. BanClub 333 remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Club 333 40%OverKnight 60%
The model gave 60% on OverKnight — the map was taken by Club 333.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Club 333 69%OverKnight 31%
The model gave 69% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Club 333.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 54%
Series resultClub 333 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2