ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
78%71%
Galorys · 28 mapsedge Galorys +7%Turma do Pagode · 24 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%45%
Galorys · 18 mapsedge Galorys +10%Turma do Pagode · 18 maps
AnubisTurma do Pagode ban
47%43%
Galorys · 11 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 10 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%56%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +18%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
62%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Galorys +12%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode pick
50%67%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%56%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +6%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Cache
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (55% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Galorys 56%Turma do Pagode 44%
The model gave 56% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Galorys 64%Turma do Pagode 36%
The model gave 64% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 62%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2