ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGrêmio ban
42%53%
Grêmio · 8 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +11%BORRACHEIROS · 13 maps
Dust2BORRACHEIROS ban
47%50%
Grêmio · 11 mapsnearly even -3%BORRACHEIROS · 10 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
56%36%
Grêmio · 14 mapsedge Grêmio +20%BORRACHEIROS · 7 maps
MirageBORRACHEIROS pick
33%47%
Grêmio · 8 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +14%BORRACHEIROS · 11 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
33%33%
Grêmio · 8 mapsnearly even +0%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%60%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +15%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%54%
Grêmio · 0 mapsnearly even -4%BORRACHEIROS · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Mirage
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Dust2
6. BanGrêmio remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (75% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Grêmio 71%BORRACHEIROS 29%
The model gave 71% on Grêmio — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Grêmio 34%BORRACHEIROS 66%
The model gave 66% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORRACHEIROS · 53%
Series resultBORRACHEIROS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2