ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
50%58%
Zomblers · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +8%Iowa Stormboar · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%67%
Zomblers · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +17%Iowa Stormboar · 11 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
60%30%
Zomblers · 11 mapsedge Zomblers +30%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeZomblers ban
44%36%
Zomblers · 5 mapsedge Zomblers +8%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
AncientZomblers pick
67%60%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
33%29%
Zomblers · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
CacheZomblers ban
50%56%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +6%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Cache
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickZomblers take Ancient
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanZomblers remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Zomblers 36%Iowa Stormboar 64%
The model gave 64% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Zomblers 39%Iowa Stormboar 61%
The model gave 61% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Zomblers 57%Iowa Stormboar 43%
The model gave 57% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 55%
Series resultZomblers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3