ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWanted Goons pick
60%42%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +18%DETONATE · 15 maps
AncientWanted Goons ban
31%44%
Wanted Goons · 9 mapsedge DETONATE +13%DETONATE · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
50%30%
Wanted Goons · 8 mapsedge Wanted Goons +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
38%36%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsnearly even +2%DETONATE · 7 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
29%55%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge DETONATE +26%DETONATE · 7 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
40%58%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge DETONATE +18%DETONATE · 8 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%50%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickWanted Goons take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Nuke
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. BanWanted Goons remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (38% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Wanted Goons 72%DETONATE 28%
The model gave 72% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Wanted Goons 23%DETONATE 77%
The model gave 77% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 68%
Series resultDETONATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2