ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
50%60%
The KnockoutX · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 11 maps
AncientThe KnockoutX pick
75%67%
The KnockoutX · 4 mapsedge The KnockoutX +8%Alter Ego · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%63%
The KnockoutX · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +6%Alter Ego · 4 maps
CacheThe KnockoutX ban
50%63%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Alter Ego · 4 maps
InfernoAlter Ego ban
50%57%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Alter Ego · 3 maps
DefaultThe KnockoutX ban
33%50%
The KnockoutX · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Alter Ego · 0 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
The KnockoutX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe KnockoutX remove Cache
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. PickThe KnockoutX take Ancient
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
6. BanThe KnockoutX remove Default
DeciderMirage (57% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
The KnockoutX 43%Alter Ego 57%
The model gave 57% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
The KnockoutX 35%Alter Ego 65%
The model gave 65% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 67%
Series resultAlter Ego 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2