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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORRACHEIROS#179 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBORRACHEIROS pick
53%52%
BORRACHEIROS · 13 mapsnearly even +1%Bounty Hunters · 19 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%29%
BORRACHEIROS · 13 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +24%Bounty Hunters · 13 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
33%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 5 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 18 maps
Dust2BORRACHEIROS ban
50%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 12 maps
CacheBORRACHEIROS ban
50%58%
BORRACHEIROS · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +8%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
54%60%
BORRACHEIROS · 9 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
46%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Cache
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickBORRACHEIROS take Mirage
4. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (53% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
BORRACHEIROS 54%Bounty Hunters 46%
The model gave 54% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
BORRACHEIROS 71%Bounty Hunters 29%
The model gave 71% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 69%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2