ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
80%33%
Galorys · 31 mapedge Galorys +47%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
52%50%
Galorys · 19 mapsnearly even +2%Bounty Hunters · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%50%
Galorys · 11 mapsedge Galorys +17%Bounty Hunters · 18 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
50%58%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +8%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%54%
Galorys · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
50%60%
Galorys · 12 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
38%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +12%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
Galorys 39%Bounty Hunters 61%
The model gave 61% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Galorys 90%Bounty Hunters 10%
The model gave 90% on Galorys — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Galorys 67%Bounty Hunters 33%
The model gave 67% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 61%
Series resultGalorys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3