ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zomblers#197 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
29%60%
Chicken Coop · 10 mapsedge Zomblers +31%Zomblers · 11 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
44%55%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Zomblers +11%Zomblers · 7 maps
NukeChicken Coop pick
56%44%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +12%Zomblers · 5 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
50%44%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%Zomblers · 5 maps
AncientChicken Coop ban
33%71%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +38%Zomblers · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%60%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Zomblers +17%Zomblers · 1 map
CacheZomblers ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Zomblers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. BanZomblers remove Cache
3. PickChicken Coop take Nuke
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Dust2
6. BanChicken Coop remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Chicken Coop 15%Zomblers 85%
The model gave 85% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Chicken Coop 64%Zomblers 36%
The model gave 64% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 65%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2