ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#197 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
44%69%
Zomblers · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +25%Overtake Sector · 22 maps
InfernoZomblers pick
60%53%
Zomblers · 11 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Overtake Sector · 15 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
55%43%
Zomblers · 7 mapsedge Zomblers +12%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%50%
Zomblers · 4 mapsedge Zomblers +13%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
33%50%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
40%50%
Zomblers · 6 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
CacheZomblers ban
50%56%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Cache
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanZomblers remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Zomblers 64%Overtake Sector 36%
The model gave 64% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Zomblers 24%Overtake Sector 76%
The model gave 76% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 59%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2