Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachefnatic pick
80%60%
fnatic · 16 mapsedge fnatic +20%Sashi · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%46%
fnatic · 17 mapsedge fnatic +16%Sashi · 9 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
38%40%
fnatic · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Sashi · 11 maps
Infernofnatic ban
60%54%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +6%Sashi · 9 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 18 maps
AnubisSashi pick
71%67%
fnatic · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Sashi · 5 maps
MirageSashi ban
40%33%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +7%Sashi · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickSashi take Anubis
5. BanSashi remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (62% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
fnatic 53%Sashi 47%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
fnatic 68%Sashi 32%
The model gave 68% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 69%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2