Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#17 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MIBR#13 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
70%54%
Astralis · 19 mapsedge Astralis +16%MIBR · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
47%50%
Astralis · 13 mapsnearly even -3%MIBR · 12 maps
InfernoMIBR pick
38%71%
Astralis · 9 mapsedge MIBR +33%MIBR · 13 maps
CacheMIBR ban
76%58%
Astralis · 13 mapsedge Astralis +18%MIBR · 8 maps
MirageAstralis ban
55%54%
Astralis · 7 mapsnearly even +1%MIBR · 9 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
27%50%
Astralis · 7 mapsedge MIBR +23%MIBR · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickMIBR take Inferno
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Astralis 19%MIBR 81%
The model gave 81% on MIBR — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
Astralis 72%MIBR 28%
The model gave 72% on Astralis — the map was taken by MIBR.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Astralis 51%MIBR 49%
The model gave 51% on Astralis — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 54%
Series resultMIBR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3