Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#20 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
60%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsnearly even -3%HEROIC · 15 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
45%65%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsedge HEROIC +20%HEROIC · 13 maps
MirageNinjas in Pyjamas ban
45%69%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 16 mapsedge HEROIC +24%HEROIC · 12 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
74%69%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 19 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%HEROIC · 9 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
38%62%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +24%HEROIC · 17 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
60%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 14 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
57%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +7%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Cache
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Ninjas in Pyjamas 33%HEROIC 67%
The model gave 67% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Ninjas in Pyjamas 40%HEROIC 60%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Ninjas in Pyjamas 27%HEROIC 73%
The model gave 73% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 60%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3