Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
100 Thieves#35 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
62%79%
HEROIC · 17 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%100 Thieves · 15 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
63%53%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +10%100 Thieves · 11 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
68%54%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +14%100 Thieves · 9 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
65%60%
HEROIC · 13 mapsedge HEROIC +5%100 Thieves · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
69%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +19%100 Thieves · 12 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
61%57%
HEROIC · 14 mapsnearly even +4%100 Thieves · 3 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%100 Thieves · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (69% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
HEROIC 28%100 Thieves 72%
The model gave 72% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
HEROIC 68%100 Thieves 32%
The model gave 68% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
HEROIC 60%100 Thieves 40%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 64%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3