ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#166 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Last Resort pick
67%40%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +27%Saint Sinners · 6 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
33%44%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge Saint Sinners +11%Saint Sinners · 5 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
50%67%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge Saint Sinners +17%Saint Sinners · 5 maps
CacheSaint Sinners ban
57%40%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +17%Saint Sinners · 1 map
InfernoThe Last Resort ban
43%40%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Saint Sinners · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
57%45%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +12%Saint Sinners · 7 maps
AnubisSaint Sinners pick
50%50%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickSaint Sinners take Anubis
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (57% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
The Last Resort 47%Saint Sinners 53%
The model gave 53% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
The Last Resort 56%Saint Sinners 44%
The model gave 56% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
The Last Resort 38%Saint Sinners 62%
The model gave 62% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 52%
Series resultSaint Sinners 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3