ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Privateer#226 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
52%31%
Vexar · 23 mapsedge Vexar +21%Privateer · 9 maps
NukePrivateer pick
38%32%
Vexar · 12 mapsedge Vexar +6%Privateer · 15 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
56%30%
Vexar · 14 mapsedge Vexar +26%Privateer · 6 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
54%29%
Vexar · 9 mapsedge Vexar +25%Privateer · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%22%
Vexar · 8 mapsedge Vexar +28%Privateer · 5 maps
InfernoVexar ban
55%67%
Vexar · 7 mapsedge Privateer +12%Privateer · 2 maps
AnubisVexar ban
30%50%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Privateer +20%Privateer · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Anubis
2. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickPrivateer take Nuke
5. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
6. BanVexar remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Vexar 54%Privateer 46%
The model gave 54% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Vexar 73%Privateer 27%
The model gave 73% on Vexar — the map was taken by Privateer.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Vexar 30%Privateer 70%
The model gave 70% on Privateer — the map was taken by Privateer.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 63%
Series resultPrivateer 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3