ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
55%63%
Just Players · 43 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +8%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
65%27%
Just Players · 30 mapsedge Just Players +38%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%40%
Just Players · 26 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
33%58%
Just Players · 14 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +25%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
38%50%
Just Players · 20 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +12%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
46%50%
Just Players · 9 mapsnearly even -4%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%46%
Just Players · 0 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
6. BanJust Players remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct2:13
Just Players 24%HYPERSPIRIT 76%
The model gave 76% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Just Players 85%HYPERSPIRIT 15%
The model gave 85% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Just Players 43%HYPERSPIRIT 57%
The model gave 57% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 60%
Series resultJust Players 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3