ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Revise#160 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRevise pick
55%27%
Revise · 7 mapsedge Revise +28%Banda Chuya · 7 maps
Dust2Banda Chuya ban
56%63%
Revise · 5 mapsedge Banda Chuya +7%Banda Chuya · 4 maps
AncientBanda Chuya pick
50%50%
Revise · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Banda Chuya · 4 maps
CacheRevise ban
33%29%
Revise · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
50%29%
Revise · 2 mapsedge Revise +21%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%57%
Revise · 2 mapsedge Revise +10%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
NukeRevise ban
50%44%
Revise · 0 mapsedge Revise +6%Banda Chuya · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRevise remove Nuke
2. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
3. PickRevise take Mirage
4. PickBanda Chuya take Ancient
5. BanBanda Chuya remove Dust2
6. BanRevise remove Cache
DeciderDefault (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Revise 78%Banda Chuya 22%
The model gave 78% on Revise — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Revise 47%Banda Chuya 53%
The model gave 53% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 52%
Series resultBanda Chuya 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2