ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBERG ban
19%87%
BERG · 12 mapsedge Leo +68%Leo · 26 maps
AncientBERG pick
53%36%
BERG · 15 mapsedge BERG +17%Leo · 18 maps
Dust2BERG ban
50%41%
BERG · 4 mapsedge BERG +9%Leo · 28 maps
MirageLeo ban
23%38%
BERG · 9 mapsedge Leo +15%Leo · 12 maps
CacheLeo pick
60%55%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +5%Leo · 16 maps
AnubisLeo ban
40%36%
BERG · 1 mapnearly even +4%Leo · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%22%
BERG · 3 mapsedge BERG +21%Leo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Nuke
2. BanLeo remove Anubis
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickLeo take Cache
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanBERG remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (43% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:19
BERG 69%Leo 31%
The model gave 69% on BERG — the map was taken by Leo.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
BERG 3%Leo 97%
The model gave 97% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 75%
Series resultLeo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2