?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Saint Sinners#134 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
40%59%
Saint Sinners · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +19%MOUZ NXT · 25 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
70%33%
Saint Sinners · 6 mapsedge Saint Sinners +37%MOUZ NXT · 20 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
50%27%
Saint Sinners · 8 mapsedge Saint Sinners +23%MOUZ NXT · 18 maps
CacheSaint Sinners ban
40%48%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +8%MOUZ NXT · 17 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
50%60%
Saint Sinners · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
45%71%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +26%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge Saint Sinners +10%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (45% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Saint Sinners 29%MOUZ NXT 71%
The model gave 71% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Saint Sinners 84%MOUZ NXT 16%
The model gave 84% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Saint Sinners 40%MOUZ NXT 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 55%
Series resultSaint Sinners 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3