ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLeo ban
38%57%
Leo · 12 mapsedge Just Players +19%Just Players · 45 maps
Dust2possible decider
39%40%
Leo · 29 mapsnearly even -1%Just Players · 26 maps
AncientJust Players pick
42%66%
Leo · 20 mapsedge Just Players +24%Just Players · 31 map
NukeLeo pick
88%40%
Leo · 29 mapsedge Leo +48%Just Players · 21 map
CacheJust Players ban
55%32%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +23%Just Players · 15 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
33%46%
Leo · 11 mapsedge Just Players +13%Just Players · 9 maps
DefaultLeo ban
22%67%
Leo · 5 mapsedge Just Players +45%Just Players · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickJust Players take Ancient
5. BanJust Players remove Anubis
6. BanLeo remove Default
DeciderDust2 (39% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Leo 29%Just Players 71%
The model gave 71% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Leo 75%Just Players 25%
The model gave 75% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Leo 49%Just Players 51%
The model gave 51% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 52%
Series resultJust Players 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3