ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLeo pick
60%88%
MOUZ NXT · 26 mapsedge Leo +28%Leo · 29 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
32%38%
MOUZ NXT · 21 mapedge Leo +6%Leo · 30 maps
Cachepossible decider
48%57%
MOUZ NXT · 17 mapsedge Leo +9%Leo · 17 maps
AncientLeo ban
56%42%
MOUZ NXT · 12 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +14%Leo · 20 maps
MirageLeo ban
27%35%
MOUZ NXT · 18 mapsedge Leo +8%Leo · 13 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%33%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Leo · 11 maps
DefaultMOUZ NXT pick
71%22%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +49%Leo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Default
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderCache (48% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
MOUZ NXT 16%Leo 84%
The model gave 84% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
MOUZ NXT 67%Leo 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
MOUZ NXT 43%Leo 57%
The model gave 57% on Leo — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 61%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3