ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
50%58%
Saint Sinners · 8 mapsedge Just Players +8%Just Players · 46 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
55%66%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsedge Just Players +11%Just Players · 31 map
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
73%42%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsedge Saint Sinners +31%Just Players · 27 maps
NukeJust Players ban
36%40%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Just Players · 21 map
CacheSaint Sinners ban
40%30%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Saint Sinners +10%Just Players · 16 maps
Defaultpossible decider
42%67%
Saint Sinners · 8 mapsedge Just Players +25%Just Players · 5 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
50%46%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Just Players · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
2. BanJust Players remove Anubis
3. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (42% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Saint Sinners 36%Just Players 64%
The model gave 64% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Saint Sinners 81%Just Players 19%
The model gave 81% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 56%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2