NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#150 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
57%59%
Gothic · 3 mapsnearly even -2%LPH · 13 maps
NukeGothic ban
50%56%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge LPH +6%LPH · 12 maps
AnubisGothic pick
43%40%
Gothic · 3 mapsnearly even +3%LPH · 6 maps
InfernoLPH pick
60%67%
Gothic · 1 mapedge LPH +7%LPH · 8 maps
Dust2Gothic ban
40%55%
Gothic · 1 mapedge LPH +15%LPH · 7 maps
MirageLPH ban
33%67%
Gothic · 2 mapsedge LPH +34%LPH · 2 maps
CacheLPH ban
50%29%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge Gothic +21%LPH · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGothic remove Dust2
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickGothic take Anubis
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Mirage
6. BanGothic remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (57% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Gothic 56%LPH 44%
The model gave 56% on Gothic — the map was taken by Gothic.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Gothic 45%LPH 55%
The model gave 55% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Gothic 36%LPH 64%
The model gave 64% on LPH — the map was taken by Gothic.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 55%
Series resultGothic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3