NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
60%60%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even +0%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Dust2brazylijski luz pick
50%60%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
MirageASTRAL ban
55%50%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge ASTRAL +5%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
30%50%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge brazylijski luz +20%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Nukebrazylijski luz ban
57%50%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Anubisbrazylijski luz ban
67%50%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
ASTRAL · 1 mapnearly even +0%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Dust2
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Nuke
6. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
ASTRAL 52%brazylijski luz 48%
The model gave 52% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
ASTRAL 33%brazylijski luz 67%
The model gave 67% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 71%
Series resultASTRAL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2