Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeTNC pick
64%55%
TNC · 10 mapsedge TNC +9%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
38%62%
TNC · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +24%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%44%
TNC · 8 mapsedge TNC +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%33%
TNC · 6 mapsedge TNC +27%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
46%50%
TNC · 9 mapsnearly even -4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
InfernoTNC ban
50%45%
TNC · 0 mapsedge TNC +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
OverpassTNC ban
38%40%
TNC · 4 mapsnearly even -2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
TNC 50%ex-Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on TNC — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
TNC 25%ex-Zero Tenacity 75%
The model gave 75% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 50%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2