United21 League Season 49 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Prestige#100 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisALGO pick
33%60%
ALGO · 8 mapsedge Prestige +27%Prestige · 1 map
AncientPrestige pick
44%67%
ALGO · 5 mapsedge Prestige +23%Prestige · 2 maps
InfernoPrestige ban
60%60%
ALGO · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Prestige · 1 map
MirageALGO ban
22%33%
ALGO · 5 mapsedge Prestige +11%Prestige · 2 maps
NukePrestige ban
64%50%
ALGO · 7 mapsedge ALGO +14%Prestige · 0 maps
OverpassALGO ban
43%50%
ALGO · 3 mapsedge Prestige +7%Prestige · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Mirage
2. BanPrestige remove Nuke
3. PickALGO take Anubis
4. PickPrestige take Ancient
5. BanPrestige remove Inferno
6. BanALGO remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
ALGO 47%Prestige 53%
The model gave 53% on Prestige — the map was taken by ALGO.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
ALGO 27%Prestige 73%
The model gave 73% on Prestige — the map was taken by ALGO.
Model check result
Model favoriteALGO · 54%
Series resultALGO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2