ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSaint Sinners ban
54%38%
Vexar · 22 mapsedge Vexar +16%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
MirageVexar pick
56%40%
Vexar · 14 mapsedge Vexar +16%Saint Sinners · 6 maps
NukeSaint Sinners ban
38%40%
Vexar · 12 mapsnearly even -2%Saint Sinners · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%45%
Vexar · 8 mapsedge Vexar +5%Saint Sinners · 7 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
58%63%
Vexar · 8 mapsedge Saint Sinners +5%Saint Sinners · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
30%50%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Saint Sinners +20%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
InfernoVexar ban
55%40%
Vexar · 7 mapsedge Vexar +15%Saint Sinners · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Anubis
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
3. PickVexar take Mirage
4. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Nuke
6. BanVexar remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
Vexar 69%Saint Sinners 31%
The model gave 69% on Vexar — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Vexar 43%Saint Sinners 57%
The model gave 57% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 65%
Series resultSaint Sinners 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2