ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Revise#160 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
55%55%
Just Players · 43 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%57%
Just Players · 29 mapsedge Just Players +7%Revise · 3 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
40%56%
Just Players · 26 mapsedge Revise +16%Revise · 5 maps
NukeRevise ban
38%50%
Just Players · 20 mapsedge Revise +12%Revise · 0 maps
CacheJust Players ban
29%38%
Just Players · 13 mapsedge Revise +9%Revise · 4 maps
AnubisRevise ban
46%50%
Just Players · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Revise · 2 maps
DefaultRevise pick
67%67%
Just Players · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Cache
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Default
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. BanJust Players remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (64% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
Just Players 38%Revise 62%
The model gave 62% on Revise — the map was taken by Just Players.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Just Players 60%Revise 40%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 52%
Series resultJust Players 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2