ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionL1LFO 10#164 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
50%50%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 14 maps
AncientLFO 10 pick
50%36%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +14%MAYBE · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%42%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +8%MAYBE · 8 maps
CacheMAYBE ban
50%40%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +10%MAYBE · 6 maps
AnubisLFO 10 ban
50%50%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 4 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
50%43%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +7%MAYBE · 3 maps
DefaultLFO 10 ban
50%50%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 10 remove Anubis
2. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
3. PickLFO 10 take Ancient
4. PickMAYBE take Mirage
5. BanMAYBE remove Cache
6. BanLFO 10 remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
LFO 10 47%MAYBE 53%
The model gave 53% on MAYBE — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
LFO 10 63%MAYBE 37%
The model gave 63% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 10 · 52%
Series resultLFO 10 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2