MESA Pro Series Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NEXVOID#102 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
55%67%
5star · 16 mapsedge NEXVOID +12%NEXVOID · 23 maps
Ancient5star ban
25%68%
5star · 16 mapsedge NEXVOID +43%NEXVOID · 21 map
Nukepossible decider
55%50%
5star · 16 mapsedge 5star +5%NEXVOID · 12 maps
Cache5star pick
57%22%
5star · 10 mapsedge 5star +35%NEXVOID · 5 maps
Dust25star ban
50%47%
5star · 0 mapsnearly even +3%NEXVOID · 11 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
67%50%
5star · 8 mapsedge 5star +17%NEXVOID · 0 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
75%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +25%NEXVOID · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
3. Pick5star take Cache
4. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
5. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
6. Ban5star remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
5star 12%NEXVOID 88%
The model gave 88% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
5star 41%NEXVOID 59%
The model gave 59% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by 5star.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
5star 55%NEXVOID 45%
The model gave 55% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 63%
Series result5star 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3