WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Young Blud#212 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAurora Young Blud pick
50%50%
ARCRED · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora Young Blud · 2 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
60%60%
ARCRED · 1 mapnearly even +0%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
MirageARCRED ban
60%40%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +20%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
OverpassAurora Young Blud ban
50%33%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +17%Aurora Young Blud · 2 maps
Dust2Aurora Young Blud ban
50%40%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +10%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
NukeARCRED ban
50%40%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +10%Aurora Young Blud · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanAurora Young Blud remove Overpass
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickAurora Young Blud take Ancient
5. BanAurora Young Blud remove Dust2
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
ARCRED 47%Aurora Young Blud 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Young Blud — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
ARCRED 63%Aurora Young Blud 37%
The model gave 63% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 69%
Series resultARCRED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2